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Brasil DE Pelotas vs São Gabriel — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
São Gabriel
São Gabriel
10/5/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas98%
×Draw2%
São Gabriel0%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasil DE Pelotas
4.80
São Gabriel
0.14

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 3329% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
2.27
São Gabriel
0.00

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
0.27
São Gabriel
7.33

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par
São Gabriel+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

São Gabriel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–020%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (20%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
65%35%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw
100%
Brasil DE Pelotas or São Gabriel
98%
Draw or São Gabriel
2%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
92%
São Gabriel wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
99%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
94%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
82%
São Gabriel 1+ goals
13%
São Gabriel 2+ goals
1%
São Gabriel 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
100%
São Gabriel (draw refunded)
0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

São Gabriel away — creates 0.00, concedes 7.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 2.27 + São Gabriel defence 7.33 → ÷2 → 4.80

São Gabriel attack 0.00 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
98%
level
2%
São Gabriel scores more
0%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brasil DE Pelotas vs São Gabriel

Brasil DE Pelotas beat São Gabriel 9-0 in Copa Gaúcha on October 5, 2025.