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Brasil DE Pelotas vs Pelotas — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pelotas
Pelotas
11/2/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas58%
×Draw26%
Pelotas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasil DE Pelotas
1.51
Pelotas
0.64

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 136% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
2.27
Pelotas
1.00

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
0.27
Pelotas
0.75

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par
Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw
84%
Brasil DE Pelotas or Pelotas
74%
Draw or Pelotas
42%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
31%
Pelotas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
78%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
44%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
19%
Pelotas 1+ goals
47%
Pelotas 2+ goals
14%
Pelotas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
79%
Pelotas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Pelotas away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 2.27 + Pelotas defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pelotas attack 1.00 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
58%
level
26%
Pelotas scores more
16%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Brasil DE Pelotas 1–1 Pelotas

Brasil DE Pelotas and Pelotas drew 1-1 in Copa Gaúcha on November 2, 2025.