Brasil DE Pelotas 1–3 Oeste: Result & Stats

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Oeste

Michel 71'

Marciel 69'

9 Mazinho 45+19'

Betinho 31'

9/22/2018

Serie B · Round 28Bento Mendes de Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas44%

×Draw28%

Oeste27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchOeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.93

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.28

Oeste

0.93

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 69 away

0.88

creates per match

0.99

0.86

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.88

Oeste

0.99

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.86

Oeste

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

73%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Oeste

72%

Draw or Oeste

56%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

20%

Oeste wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

72%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

37%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

14%

Oeste 1+ goals

61%

Oeste 2+ goals

24%

Oeste 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

62%

Oeste (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.88 + Oeste defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oeste attack 0.99 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

44%

level

28%

Oeste scores more

27%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Wallace Pernambucano← Edson Pereira

31'

Betinho↳ Marcinho

45+3'

Diego Miranda← Wallace Pernambucano

45+19'

54'

60'

61'

67'

69'

Marciel↳ Pedrinho

71'

Guilherme Romão← Conrado

71'

Michel↳ Marcelo Pitol

78'

Edilson← Marciel

81'

Adriano Alves

84'

Rodrigo Souza← Pedrinho

90'

Rafael Dumas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrasilOeste

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots14

6Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots14

4On Target7

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

5Inside Box7

11Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

406Total Passes339

288Accurate Passes239

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2