Brasil DE Pelotas 2–0 Internacional 2

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional 2

10/25/2025

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas81%

×Draw15%

Internacional 24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchInternacional 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.30

Brasil DE Pelotas

2.19

Internacional 2

0.30

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 630% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.27

creates per match

0.33

0.27

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

2.27

Internacional 2

0.33

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.27

Internacional 2

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Internacional 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Internacional 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

96%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Internacional 2

85%

Draw or Internacional 2

19%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

56%

Internacional 2 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

89%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

64%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

37%

Internacional 2 1+ goals

26%

Internacional 2 2+ goals

4%

Internacional 2 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

95%

Internacional 2 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Internacional 2 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 2.27 + Internacional 2 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.19

Internacional 2 attack 0.33 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

81%

level

15%

Internacional 2 scores more

4%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff