Brasil DE Pelotas 2–0 BOA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BOA

Maicon Assis 75'

Edson Pereira 48'

7/24/2018

Serie B · Round 17Bento Mendes de Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas48%

×Draw31%

BOA21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchBOA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.67

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.17

BOA

0.67

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 75% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

0.91

creates per match

0.43

0.91

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.91

BOA

0.43

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.91

BOA

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

BOA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

79%

Brasil DE Pelotas or BOA

69%

Draw or BOA

52%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

21%

BOA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

69%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

33%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

11%

BOA 1+ goals

49%

BOA 2+ goals

15%

BOA 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

69%

BOA (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 47 matches

BOA away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.91 + BOA defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

BOA attack 0.43 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

48%

level

31%

BOA scores more

21%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Maicon Assis← Valdemir

47'

Bruno Tubarão

48'

Nirley

48'

Edson Pereira↳ Kaio Nunes

56'

58'

58'

61'

70'

73'

Felipe Alves← Douglas Baggio

75'

Maicon Assis

75'

Maicon Assis↳ Edson Pereira

83'

Kaio Cristian

83'

Lourency← Edson Pereira

90'

Carlos Eduardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrasilBOA

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots13

3Corners2

19Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target2

7Off Target7

1Blocked4

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

441Total Passes274

337Accurate Passes178

76%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls20

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3