Brann 4–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stabaek

B. Finne 77', 30'

S. Heltne Nilsen 63'

F. Myhre 36'

K. Høgh 35'

5/16/2023

Eliteserien · Round 7Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Brann56%

×Draw21%

Stabaek24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.33

Brann

2.13

Stabaek

1.33

Brann creates 60% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

2.10

creates per match

1.63

1.04

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Brann

2.10

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Brann

1.04

Stabaek

2.15

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Brann+0.03on par

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Brann or draw

76%

Brann or Stabaek

79%

Draw or Stabaek

44%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

33%

Stabaek wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

88%

Brann 2+ goals

63%

Brann 3+ goals

35%

Stabaek 1+ goals

74%

Stabaek 2+ goals

38%

Stabaek 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

70%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.04 · 31 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.10 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Brann defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brann scores more

56%

level

21%

Stabaek scores more

24%

Brann at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Finne

Brann · F

8.3

Match Events

26'

N. Jenssen← A. Skovgaard

30'

B. Finne↳ M. Rasmussen

35'

K. Høgh↳ K. Kabran

36'

F. Myhre

46'

D. Møller Wolfe← F. Knudsen

62'

F. Børsting← N. Jensen Wassberg

63'

S. Heltne Nilsen↳ F. Børsting

67'

K. Kostadinov← H. Geelmuyden

67'

A. Andresen← T. Pachonik

77'

B. Finne

80'

Jonatan Lucca← C. Edwards

80'

M. Bakenga← K. Kabran

82'

T. Pedersen← O. Didrik Blomberg

82'

E. Myrlid← B. Finne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannStabaek

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots6

6Corners7

7Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots6

4On Target2

3Off Target0

3Blocked4

5Inside Box1

5Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

549Total Passes452

452Accurate Passes356

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Offsides1

Brann 4 – 1 Stabaek

Brann beat Stabaek 4-1 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2023.

Goals: B. Finne (30', 77'), K. Høgh (35'), F. Myhre (36'), S. Heltne Nilsen (63').

Brann controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Brann 4 – 1 Stabaek