Brann 1–1 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Brann

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sogndal

V. Moberg 38'

J. Jónsson 80'

4/23/2022

1. Division · Round 4Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brann72%

×Draw17%

Sogndal11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.83

Brann

2.42

Sogndal

0.83

Brann creates 192% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 114 away

3.27

creates per match

1.33

0.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Brann

3.27

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Brann

0.33

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brann+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brann or draw

89%

Brann or Sogndal

83%

Draw or Sogndal

28%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

49%

Sogndal wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

91%

Brann 2+ goals

69%

Brann 3+ goals

43%

Sogndal 1+ goals

56%

Sogndal 2+ goals

20%

Sogndal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

87%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 3.27, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 3.27 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.42

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Brann defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Brann scores more

72%

level

17%

Sogndal scores more

11%

Brann at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

38'

40'

69'

69'

70'

75'

75'

K. Skaanes← N. Castro

76'

J. Jónsson← H. Gunnarsson

80'

J. Jónsson

83'

J. Jonsson

86'

S. Crone

Brann

Sogndal

1

Fij

13

Flo

5

▼

4

26

15

8

11

19

27

18

▼

1

21

13

3

5

19

6

⚽

▼

Moberg

7

Rasmussen

10

Børsting

9

▼

Castro

20

Heggebø

Manager: E. Horneland

75'▲F. Myhre←▼V. Moberg

75'▲K. Skaanes←▼N. Castro

Brann substitutes

8Myhre15Skaanes2Blomberg11Finne12Johansen17Delaveris18Wolfe25Jensen31Hjorteseth

Manager: T. Flo

70'▲P. Michael←▼K. Hoven

76'▲J. Jónsson←▼H. Gunnarsson

Sogndal substitutes

14Michael7Jónsson6Kryger16Lereng17Blårud23Nord29Steinset30Flataker35Saetren

Brann 1 – 1 Sogndal

Brann and Sogndal drew 1-1 in 1. Division on April 23, 2022.

Goals: V. Moberg (38'), J. Jónsson (80').

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brann 1 – 1 Sogndal