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Brann vs Rangers — UEFA Europa League 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rangers
Rangers
N. Holm 79'
J. Sorensen 55'
E. Kornvig 40'
10/23/2025UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brann56%
×Draw22%
Rangers22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
1.90
Rangers
1.09

Brann creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Brann
1.29
Rangers
0.75

allows per match

Brann
1.43
Rangers
2.50

finishing

Brann+0.00on par
Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brann or draw
78%
Brann or Rangers
78%
Draw or Rangers
44%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
33%
Rangers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
85%
Brann 2+ goals
56%
Brann 3+ goals
29%
Rangers 1+ goals
66%
Rangers 2+ goals
30%
Rangers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
72%
Rangers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Rangers away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 1.29 + Rangers defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rangers attack 0.75 + Brann defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brann scores more
56%
level
22%
Rangers scores more
22%

Brann at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Djeidi Gassama
40'
E. Kornvig↳ B. Finne
55'
J. Sorensen↳ B. Finne
56'
M. Moore← O. Antman
64'
C. Barron← J. Rothwell
64'
B. Miovski← T. Aasgaard
68'
T. Pedersen← U. Mathisen
68'
M. Haaland← B. Finne
75'
Thore Baardsen Pedersen
76'
D. Cornelius← N. Djiga
76'
Danilo Pereira← Chermiti
77'
John Souttar
78'
M. Hansen← D. De Roeve
78'
M. Sande← J. Sorensen
79'
N. Holm↳ V. Dragsnes
85'
L. Remmem← N. Holm

Possession

53%Brann

Shots

13Brann

Pass accuracy

51%Brann

Statistics

BrannRangers
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots9
2.33Expected Goals (xG)1.27
3Corners5
10Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots9
5On Target1
4Off Target6
4Blocked2
11Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
433Total Passes376
347Accurate Passes292
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
-0.80Goals Prevented-0.80
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

UEFA Europa League: Brann 3–0 Rangers

Brann beat Rangers 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 23, 2025.

Goals: E. Kornvig (40'), J. Sorensen (55'), N. Holm (79').

Brann controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.