Brann 1–3 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Brann

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

J. Tveita 81'

M. Bakenga 88', 72', 49' (pen)

6/20/2021

Eliteserien · Round 8Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Brann64%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.99

Brann

2.18

ODD Ballklubb

0.99

Brann creates 120% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

2.10

creates per match

0.94

1.04

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Brann

2.10

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Brann

1.04

ODD Ballklubb

2.26

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Brann+0.03on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Brann or draw

84%

Brann or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

36%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

41%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

89%

Brann 2+ goals

64%

Brann 3+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

63%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

26%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

80%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.04 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.10 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.18

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Brann defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Brann scores more

64%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

16%

Brann at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Bakenga

ODD Ballklubb · F

9.0

Match Events

49'

M. BakengaPenalty

59'

K. Larsen← C. Wallem

72'

M. Bakenga↳ K. Larsen

74'

D. Pedersen← F. Delaveris

74'

O. Kolskogen← V. Forren

74'

J. Tveita← O. Blomberg

79'

S. Owusu← M. Kaasa

81'

J. Tveita↳ K. Skaanes

86'

Joshua Kitolano

86'

T. Grøgaard← K. Skaanes

88'

Ole Martin Lekven Kolskogen

88'

M. Bakenga

90'

N. Jensen← T. Grøgaard

90+4'

T. Lauritsen← S. Svendsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannODD

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots14

9Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots14

4On Target6

6Off Target8

7Blocked0

7Inside Box10

10Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

462Total Passes444

367Accurate Passes359

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Eliteserien: Brann 1–3 ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Brann 3-1 in Eliteserien on June 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Bakenga (49' pen, 72', 88'), J. Tveita (81').

Brann controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Brann 1–3 ODD Ballklubb