Brann 1–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Brann

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

D. Bamba 3'

11/24/2018

Eliteserien · Round 30Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Brann63%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.04

Brann

2.17

ODD Ballklubb

1.04

Brann creates 109% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

2.12

creates per match

0.98

1.09

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Brann

2.12

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Brann

1.09

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Brann-0.04on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brann or draw

83%

Brann or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

37%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

40%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

89%

Brann 2+ goals

64%

Brann 3+ goals

36%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

28%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

78%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.09 · 36 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.12 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.17

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Brann defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Brann scores more

63%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

17%

Brann at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Pettersen

Brann · G

7.4

Match Events

3'

D. Bamba

46'

R. Kristiansen← T. Teniste

46'

O. Björtuft← V. Bergan

67'

T. Børven← A. Sødlund

77'

D. Braaten← G. Koomson

77'

F. Delaveris← B. Njie

79'

S. Skålevik← D. Bamba

90'

Espen Ruud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannODD

Overview

38%Possession62%

4Total Shots7

4Corners2

17Fouls7

Shots

4Total Shots7

2On Target3

2Off Target2

0Blocked2

3Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

343Total Passes550

251Accurate Passes460

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4