Brann 1–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Haugesund

K. Barmen 70'

C. Grindheim 54'

5/16/2018

Eliteserien · Round 10Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Brann63%

×Draw20%

Haugesund17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.06

Brann

2.22

Haugesund

1.06

Brann creates 109% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

2.08

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Brann

2.08

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Brann

1.04

Haugesund

2.36

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Brann+0.01on par

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Brann or draw

83%

Brann or Haugesund

80%

Draw or Haugesund

37%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

40%

Haugesund wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

89%

Brann 2+ goals

65%

Brann 3+ goals

38%

Haugesund 1+ goals

65%

Haugesund 2+ goals

29%

Haugesund 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

79%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 32 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.08 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.22

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Brann defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Brann scores more

63%

level

20%

Haugesund scores more

17%

Brann at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

K. Barmen

Brann · M

8.2

Match Events

32'

Kristoffer Haraldseid

51'

Sivert Nilsen

54'

C. Grindheim↳ B. Akintola

65'

B. Karamoko← A. Stølås

70'

K. Barmen↳ G. Koomson

78'

D. Vega← L. Marengo

82'

A. Karadas← S. Skålevik

84'

H. Johansen← S. Nilsen

85'

Azar Karadas

86'

Bruno Leite← C. Grindheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannHaugesund

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots6

6Corners1

18Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots6

2On Target2

11Off Target2

8Blocked2

13Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

436Total Passes294

331Accurate Passes190

76%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2