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Brann II vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Brann II
Brann II
FT
9 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
E. Myrlid 89', 77'
E. Helland 68'
M. Kvinge 52', 41', 33', 4'
B. Finne 12'
D. Tufekcic 8'
10/16/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 25Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brann II64%
×Draw17%
Sandnes Ulf II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann II
2.70
Sandnes Ulf II
1.41

Brann II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Brann II
2.89
Sandnes Ulf II
1.81

allows per match

Brann II
1.00
Sandnes Ulf II
2.50

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Brann II or draw
82%
Brann II or Sandnes Ulf II
83%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
36%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+
43%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals
93%
Brann II 2+ goals
75%
Brann II 3+ goals
50%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
76%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
41%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)
78%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 2.89 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.70

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Brann II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Brann II scores more
64%
level
17%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
18%

Brann II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Kvinge
8'
D. Tufekcic
12'
B. Finne
33'
M. Kvinge
41'
M. Kvinge
52'
M. Kvinge
68'
E. Helland
77'
E. Myrlid
89'
E. Myrlid

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brann II vs Sandnes Ulf II

Brann II beat Sandnes Ulf II 9-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: M. Kvinge (4', 33', 41', 52'), D. Tufekcic (8'), B. Finne (12'), E. Helland (68'), E. Myrlid (77', 89').

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.