Brann II 2–4 jerv: Result & Stats

Brann II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

jerv

J. Eikrem 53'

W. Kvale 35'

A. Endresen 90'

A. Richstad 88', 1'

J. Furaha 37'

7/14/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Brann II37%

×Draw22%

jerv41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brann IIExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.85

Brann II

1.75

jerv

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

1.88

creates per match

1.79

1.92

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Brann II

1.88

jerv

1.79

allows per match

Brann II

1.92

jerv

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brann II or draw

59%

Brann II or jerv

78%

Draw or jerv

63%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+

19%

jerv wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals

83%

Brann II 2+ goals

52%

Brann II 3+ goals

25%

jerv 1+ goals

84%

jerv 2+ goals

55%

jerv 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)

47%

jerv (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

jerv away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 1.88 + jerv defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

jerv attack 1.79 + Brann II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brann II scores more

37%

level

22%

jerv scores more

41%

jerv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "jerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

35'

36'

37'

45+2'

53'

54'

54'

F. Hellichius← S. Strangstad

54'

E. Kolve← M. Wichmann

61'

D. Riihilahti← L. Remmem

65'

A. Endresen← R. Hauge

71'

S. Karlsen← S. Alanko

77'

S. Vindenes← P. Andersen

84'

88'

A. Richstad

90'

A. Endresen

Brann

jerv

31

15

16

19

6

▼

Wichmann

18

⚽2

Richstad

21

▼

Strangsta

77

▼

Alanko

7

▼

Hauge

17

⚽

40

1

2

3

⚽

Kvale

5

Valland

15

Grimeland

8

▼

Remmem

10

⚽

Eikrem

17

▼

11

20

21

61'▲D. Riihilahti←▼L. Remmem

77'▲S. Vindenes←▼P. Andersen

Brann II substitutes

12Fauskanger-Lindberg6Makestad9Tvedt14Vindenes18Riihilahti19Steinegger22Knudsen25Aga28Jakobsen

Manager: L. Bohinen

54'▲F. Hellichius←▼S. Strangstad

54'▲E. Kolve←▼M. Wichmann

65'▲A. Endresen←▼R. Hauge

71'▲S. Karlsen←▼S. Alanko

jerv substitutes

99Skiftenes2Karlsen5Lillehammer8Hellichius22Kolve23Duesund25Endresen

Brann II 2 – 4 jerv

jerv beat Brann II 4-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on July 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Richstad (1', 88'), W. Kvale (35'), J. Furaha (37'), J. Eikrem (53'), A. Endresen (90').

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.

Brann II vs jerv — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brann II 2 – 4 jerv