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Brann II vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Brann II
Brann II
CANC
14:00
Årdal
Årdal
8/22/20203. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brann II77%
×Draw12%
Årdal11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann II
3.70
Årdal
1.41

Brann II creates 162% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brann II
3.57
Årdal
0.67

allows per match

Brann II
2.14
Årdal
3.83

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Brann II or draw
89%
Brann II or Årdal
88%
Draw or Årdal
23%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+
60%
Årdal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals
97%
Brann II 2+ goals
87%
Brann II 3+ goals
69%
Årdal 1+ goals
76%
Årdal 2+ goals
41%
Årdal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)
88%
Årdal (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 3.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Årdal away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 3.57 + Årdal defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.70

Årdal attack 0.67 + Brann II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Brann II scores more
77%
level
12%
Årdal scores more
11%

Brann II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brann II host Årdal

August 22, 2020: Brann II take on Årdal in 3. Division - Girone 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.