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Brandýs nad Labem vs Štětí — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
FT
1 – 4
Štětí
Štětí
10/16/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 12Brandýs nad Labem UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brandýs nad Labem53%
×Draw21%
Štětí26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brandýs nad Labem
2.11
Štětí
1.42

Brandýs nad Labem creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.97
Štětí
1.25

allows per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.58
Štětí
2.26

finishing

Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par
Štětí+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brandýs nad Labem ↓

Štětí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Brandýs nad Labem or draw
74%
Brandýs nad Labem or Štětí
79%
Draw or Štětí
47%

Winning margin

Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
32%
Štětí wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
88%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
62%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
35%
Štětí 1+ goals
76%
Štětí 2+ goals
41%
Štětí 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
67%
Štětí (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brandýs nad Labem at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

Štětí away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.26 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.97 + Štětí defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.11

Štětí attack 1.25 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brandýs nad Labem scores more
53%
level
21%
Štětí scores more
26%

Brandýs nad Labem at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brandýs nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brandýs nad Labem 1 – 4 Štětí

Štětí beat Brandýs nad Labem 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Brandýs nad Labem UMT in Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav.