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Brandýs nad Labem vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
PST
09:15
Dobříš
Dobříš
3/21/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 18Na Spořilově (Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brandýs nad Labem67%
×Draw17%
Dobříš16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brandýs nad Labem
2.69
Dobříš
1.27

Brandýs nad Labem creates 112% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

creates per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.97
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.58
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brandýs nad Labem ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Brandýs nad Labem or draw
84%
Brandýs nad Labem or Dobříš
83%
Draw or Dobříš
33%

Winning margin

Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
46%
Dobříš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
93%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
74%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
49%
Dobříš 1+ goals
72%
Dobříš 2+ goals
36%
Dobříš 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
81%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brandýs nad Labem at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.97 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.69

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brandýs nad Labem scores more
67%
level
17%
Dobříš scores more
16%

Brandýs nad Labem at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brandýs nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brandýs nad Labem face Dobříš (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Brandýs nad Labem hosting Dobříš. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brandýs nad Labem host Dobříš at Na Spořilově (Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.