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Brandýs nad Labem vs Admira Praha II — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 18Brandýs nad Labem UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brandýs nad Labem54%
×Draw21%
Admira Praha II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brandýs nad Labem
2.05
Admira Praha II
1.33

Brandýs nad Labem creates 54% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

creates per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.97
Admira Praha II
1.09

allows per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.58
Admira Praha II
2.13

finishing

Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par
Admira Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brandýs nad Labem ↓

Admira Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Brandýs nad Labem or draw
75%
Brandýs nad Labem or Admira Praha II
79%
Draw or Admira Praha II
46%

Winning margin

Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
32%
Admira Praha II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
87%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
61%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
33%
Admira Praha II 1+ goals
74%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
38%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
69%
Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brandýs nad Labem at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

Admira Praha II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.97 + Admira Praha II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.05

Admira Praha II attack 1.09 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brandýs nad Labem scores more
54%
level
21%
Admira Praha II scores more
25%

Brandýs nad Labem at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brandýs nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brandýs nad Labem vs Admira Praha II

Brandýs nad Labem beat Admira Praha II 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Brandýs nad Labem UMT in Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav.