Bramberg 3–1 Bergheim: Result & Stats

Bramberg

FT

3 – 1

Bergheim

5/5/2023

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 21Smaragdarena Bramberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bramberg61%

×Draw19%

Bergheim21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrambergExpected goals in this matchBergheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.42

Bramberg

2.50

Bergheim

1.42

Bramberg creates 76% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

2.23

creates per match

1.57

1.27

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Bramberg

2.23

Bergheim

1.57

allows per match

Bramberg

1.27

Bergheim

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bramberg+0.00on par

Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bramberg ↓

Bergheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bramberg or draw

79%

Bramberg or Bergheim

81%

Draw or Bergheim

39%

Winning margin

Bramberg wins by 2+

39%

Bergheim wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bramberg 1+ goals

92%

Bramberg 2+ goals

71%

Bramberg 3+ goals

45%

Bergheim 1+ goals

76%

Bergheim 2+ goals

41%

Bergheim 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bramberg (draw refunded)

74%

Bergheim (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bramberg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bramberg attack 2.23 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Bramberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bramberg scores more

61%

level

19%

Bergheim scores more

21%

Bramberg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bramberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff