Braintree 2–3 York: Result & Stats | League #43

Braintree

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

York

T. Works 47', 4'

O. Pearce 90' (pen)

J. Grey 77'

A. Hunt 54'

9/13/2025

League #43 · Round 9Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Braintree30%

×Draw26%

York43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BraintreeExpected goals in this matchYork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.42

Braintree

1.14

York

1.42

York creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 48 away

1.20

creates per match

1.63

1.20

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Braintree

1.20

York

1.63

allows per match

Braintree

1.20

York

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Braintree+0.00on par

York+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Braintree ↓

York →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Braintree or draw

57%

Braintree or York

74%

Draw or York

70%

Winning margin

Braintree wins by 2+

12%

York wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Braintree 1+ goals

68%

Braintree 2+ goals

32%

Braintree 3+ goals

11%

York 1+ goals

76%

York 2+ goals

41%

York 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Braintree (draw refunded)

41%

York (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Braintree at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Braintree attack 1.20 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

York attack 1.63 + Braintree defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Braintree scores more

30%

level

26%

York scores more

43%

York at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

T. Works↳ C. Cooper

13'

J. Akinde

47'

T. Works↳ G. Langston

54'

57'

57'

61'

61'

61'

G. Olley← T. Sinclair

69'

D. Batty← H. Boateng

73'

C. Cooper

77'

J. Grey↳ J. Felix

90+2'

M. Marshall-Miranda

90+1'

M. Omrore← G. Babic

90+5'

S. Kamara← J. Pinnington

90+5'

F. Hubbard← F. Terry

90+4'

R. Fallowfield← A. Newby

90+4'

B. Brookes← J. Felix

90'

O. PearcePenalty

Braintree

York

1

Male

21

▼

Boateng

8

⚽

3

5

4

9

▼

Stones

30

▼

Newby

10

⚽

Pearce

23

A

▼

Felix

7

▼

Sinclair

1

Terry

17

▼

Pinningto

24

▼

Terry

6

Vennings

4

A

Langston

2

Francis-C

16

▼

Babic

8

Marshall-

14

▼

Akinde

38

⚽2

Works

11

A

Cooper

Manager: Stephen William Pitt

61'▲F. Hockey←▼J. Akinde

90+1'▲M. Omrore←▼G. Babic

90+5'▲S. Kamara←▼J. Pinnington

90+5'▲F. Hubbard←▼F. Terry

Braintree substitutes

5Omrore12McPherson18Kamara19Hockey20Hubbard

Manager: Stuart Maynard

61'▲J. Grey←▼J. Stones

61'▲G. Olley←▼T. Sinclair

69'▲D. Batty←▼H. Boateng

90+4'▲R. Fallowfield←▼A. Newby

90+4'▲B. Brookes←▼J. Felix

York substitutes

31Sykes-Kenworthy2Fallowfield6Palmer12Grey14Brookes18Batty22Olley