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Braila vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga II 2018

Braila
Braila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
8/21/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 4Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Braila30%
×Draw23%
FC Astra Giurgiu47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Braila
1.38
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.79

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Braila
0.50
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.92

allows per match

Braila
2.67
FC Astra Giurgiu
2.25

finishing

Braila+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Braila ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Braila or draw
53%
Braila or FC Astra Giurgiu
77%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
70%

Winning margin

Braila wins by 2+
13%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Braila 1+ goals
75%
Braila 2+ goals
40%
Braila 3+ goals
16%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
83%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
53%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Braila (draw refunded)
39%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Braila at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Braila attack 0.50 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + Braila defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Braila scores more
30%
level
23%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
47%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Braila 1–1 FC Astra Giurgiu

Braila and FC Astra Giurgiu drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Brăila.