Braila 0–0 Corona Braşov: Result & Stats | Liga II

Braila

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corona Braşov

8/7/2021

Liga II · Round 2Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Braila20%

×Draw25%

Corona Braşov55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrailaExpected goals in this matchCorona Braşov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.61

Braila

0.86

Corona Braşov

1.61

Corona Braşov creates 87% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

0.50

creates per match

0.56

2.67

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Braila

0.50

Corona Braşov

0.56

allows per match

Braila

2.67

Corona Braşov

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Braila+0.00on par

Corona Braşov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Braila ↓

Corona Braşov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Braila or draw

45%

Braila or Corona Braşov

75%

Draw or Corona Braşov

80%

Winning margin

Braila wins by 2+

6%

Corona Braşov wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Braila 1+ goals

58%

Braila 2+ goals

21%

Braila 3+ goals

6%

Corona Braşov 1+ goals

80%

Corona Braşov 2+ goals

48%

Corona Braşov 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Braila (draw refunded)

27%

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Braila at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

Corona Braşov away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Braila attack 0.50 + Corona Braşov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.86

Corona Braşov attack 0.56 + Braila defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Braila scores more

20%

level

25%

Corona Braşov scores more

55%

Corona Braşov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Corona Braşov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff