Bragantino 2–1 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie C

Bragantino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tombense

Adriano Paulista 90+2', 81'

Magno 55' (OG)

7/7/2018

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid (Bragança Paulista, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bragantino49%

×Draw30%

Tombense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BragantinoExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.72

Bragantino

1.24

Tombense

0.72

Bragantino creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 64 away

1.18

creates per match

0.72

0.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bragantino

1.18

Tombense

0.72

allows per match

Bragantino

0.73

Tombense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bragantino+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragantino ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bragantino or draw

78%

Bragantino or Tombense

70%

Draw or Tombense

51%

Winning margin

Bragantino wins by 2+

22%

Tombense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bragantino 1+ goals

71%

Bragantino 2+ goals

35%

Bragantino 3+ goals

13%

Tombense 1+ goals

51%

Tombense 2+ goals

16%

Tombense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bragantino (draw refunded)

69%

Tombense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragantino at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragantino attack 1.18 + Tombense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tombense attack 0.72 + Bragantino defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bragantino scores more

49%

level

30%

Tombense scores more

22%

Bragantino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

MagnoOwn goal

68'

Natanael← Caio

72'

Adriano Paulista← Marquinhos

72'

Matheus Peixoto← Gustavo Vintecinco

73'

Polaco← Felipe Baiano

79'

Léo Jaime← Buiu

81'

Adriano Paulista

90+1'

David← Polaco

90+2'

Adriano Paulista

Bragantino

Tombense

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

Manager: Marcelo Veiga

72'▲Adriano Paulista←▼Marquinhos

72'▲Matheus Peixoto←▼Gustavo Vintecinco

79'▲Léo Jaime←▼Buiu

Bragantino substitutes

PaulistaPeixotoJaimeLuanBuenoGaúchoPedroJonathanGoianoAlvesWalfridoMarlon

Manager: Ramón Menezes

68'▲Natanael←▼Caio

73'▲Polaco←▼Felipe Baiano

90+1'▲David←▼Polaco

Tombense substitutes

NatanaelPolacoDavidVictorBruninhoEvertonSenaRubensCarvalho

Serie C: Bragantino 2–1 Tombense

Bragantino beat Tombense 2-1 in Serie C on July 7, 2018.

Goals: Magno (55' o.g.), Adriano Paulista (81', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid (Bragança Paulista, São Paulo).

Bragantino vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Bragantino 2–1 Tombense