Bragantino PA 1–0 River AC: Result & Stats

Bragantino PA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

River AC

Edgar 68'

6/9/2019

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença (Belém, Pará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bragantino PA52%

×Draw27%

River AC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bragantino PAExpected goals in this matchRiver AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.80

Bragantino PA

1.43

River AC

0.80

Bragantino PA creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.85

creates per match

1.05

0.54

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bragantino PA

1.85

River AC

1.05

allows per match

Bragantino PA

0.54

River AC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bragantino PA+0.00on par

River AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragantino PA ↓

River AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bragantino PA or draw

79%

Bragantino PA or River AC

73%

Draw or River AC

48%

Winning margin

Bragantino PA wins by 2+

26%

River AC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bragantino PA 1+ goals

76%

Bragantino PA 2+ goals

42%

Bragantino PA 3+ goals

17%

River AC 1+ goals

55%

River AC 2+ goals

19%

River AC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bragantino PA (draw refunded)

71%

River AC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragantino PA at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

River AC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragantino PA attack 1.85 + River AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

River AC attack 1.05 + Bragantino PA defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bragantino PA scores more

52%

level

27%

River AC scores more

21%

Bragantino PA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bragantino PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

João Leonardo← Leandro Cearense

53'

Edgar← Mauro

68'

Edgar

69'

Kanu← Cris

75'

Guilherme Traque← Gustavo Henrique

77'

Gabriel← Esquerdinha

84'

Tote← Carlos Henrique

Bragantino

River

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Samuel Candido

19'▲João Leonardo←▼Leandro Cearense

53'▲Edgar←▼Mauro

77'▲Gabriel←▼Esquerdinha

Bragantino PA substitutes

LeonardoEdgarGabrielDecoCaioEneilsonKaiqueGoianoRafinha

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

69'▲Kanu←▼Cris

75'▲Guilherme Traque←▼Gustavo Henrique

84'▲Tote←▼Carlos Henrique

River AC substitutes

KanuTraqueToteCrisDanielRobsonVinicius