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Bragança vs Os Limianos — Taça de Portugal 2018

Bragança
Bragança
FT
0 – 1
Os Limianos
Os Limianos
9/26/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Bragança

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bragança48%
×Draw23%
Os Limianos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bragança
1.77
Os Limianos
1.30

Bragança creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bragança
1.20
Os Limianos
2.00

allows per match

Bragança
0.60
Os Limianos
2.33

finishing

Bragança+0.00on par
Os Limianos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragança ↓

Os Limianos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bragança or draw
72%
Bragança or Os Limianos
77%
Draw or Os Limianos
52%

Winning margin

Bragança wins by 2+
26%
Os Limianos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bragança 1+ goals
83%
Bragança 2+ goals
53%
Bragança 3+ goals
26%
Os Limianos 1+ goals
73%
Os Limianos 2+ goals
37%
Os Limianos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bragança (draw refunded)
63%
Os Limianos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragança at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Os Limianos away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragança attack 1.20 + Os Limianos defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Os Limianos attack 2.00 + Bragança defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bragança scores more
48%
level
23%
Os Limianos scores more
28%

Bragança at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bragança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Bragança 0–1 Os Limianos

Os Limianos beat Bragança 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Bragança in Bragança.