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Bragança vs Brito — Taça de Portugal 2018

Bragança
Bragançaadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brito
Brito
9/21/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Municipal de Bragança

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bragança68%
×Draw21%
Brito11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bragança
1.90
Brito
0.60

Bragança creates 217% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bragança
1.20
Brito
0.60

allows per match

Bragança
0.60
Brito
2.60

finishing

Bragança+0.00on par
Brito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragança ↓

Brito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bragança or draw
89%
Bragança or Brito
79%
Draw or Brito
32%

Winning margin

Bragança wins by 2+
42%
Brito wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bragança 1+ goals
85%
Bragança 2+ goals
56%
Bragança 3+ goals
29%
Brito 1+ goals
45%
Brito 2+ goals
12%
Brito 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bragança (draw refunded)
86%
Brito (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragança at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Brito away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragança attack 1.20 + Brito defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Brito attack 0.60 + Bragança defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bragança scores more
68%
level
21%
Brito scores more
11%

Bragança at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bragança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Bragança 5–0 Brito

Bragança beat Brito 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Bragança in Bragança.