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Bragança vs Vianense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Bragança
Bragança
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vianense
Vianense
5/23/2026Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bragança50%
×Draw27%
Vianense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bragança
1.45
Vianense
0.91

Bragança creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bragança
1.33
Vianense
1.14

allows per match

Bragança
0.67
Vianense
1.57

finishing

Bragança+0.00on par
Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragança ↓

Vianense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bragança or draw
76%
Bragança or Vianense
73%
Draw or Vianense
50%

Winning margin

Bragança wins by 2+
25%
Vianense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bragança 1+ goals
77%
Bragança 2+ goals
42%
Bragança 3+ goals
18%
Vianense 1+ goals
60%
Vianense 2+ goals
23%
Vianense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bragança (draw refunded)
68%
Vianense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragança at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Vianense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragança attack 1.33 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vianense attack 1.14 + Bragança defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bragança scores more
50%
level
27%
Vianense scores more
24%

Bragança at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bragança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Bragança 1–0 Vianense

Bragança beat Vianense 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 23, 2026.