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Lyseng vs Randers Freja — Denmark Series - Group 3 2014

Lyseng
Lyseng
FT
2 – 0
Randers Freja
Randers Freja
6/6/2015Denmark Series - Group 3Denmark Series - Group 3 · Round 24Lyseng Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lyseng58%
×Draw20%
Randers Freja22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyseng
2.28
Randers Freja
1.36

Lyseng creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lyseng
2.11
Randers Freja
1.73

allows per match

Lyseng
1.00
Randers Freja
2.45

finishing

Lyseng+0.00on par
Randers Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyseng ↓

Randers Freja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lyseng or draw
78%
Lyseng or Randers Freja
80%
Draw or Randers Freja
42%

Winning margin

Lyseng wins by 2+
36%
Randers Freja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lyseng 1+ goals
90%
Lyseng 2+ goals
66%
Lyseng 3+ goals
39%
Randers Freja 1+ goals
74%
Randers Freja 2+ goals
39%
Randers Freja 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lyseng (draw refunded)
72%
Randers Freja (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyseng at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Randers Freja away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyseng attack 2.11 + Randers Freja defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.28

Randers Freja attack 1.73 + Lyseng defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lyseng scores more
58%
level
20%
Randers Freja scores more
22%

Lyseng at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Denmark Series - Group 3: Lyseng 2–0 Randers Freja

Lyseng beat Randers Freja 2-0 in Denmark Series - Group 3 on June 6, 2015.

The match was played at Lyseng Idrætspark in Højbjerg.