Bradford 1–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sutton Utd

2/17/2024

League Two · Round 34University of Bradford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bradford49%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.03

Bradford

1.55

Sutton Utd

1.03

Bradford creates 50% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 69 away

1.36

creates per match

1.12

0.94

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Bradford

1.36

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Bradford

0.94

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

75%

Bradford or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

51%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

25%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

79%

Bradford 2+ goals

46%

Bradford 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

64%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

28%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

66%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 134 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.36 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Bradford defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bradford scores more

49%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

25%

Bradford at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff