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Bradford vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Bradford
Bradford
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
2/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 29Valley Parade
Big match
39%
Plymouth
model favours
36%25%39%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bradford36%
×Draw25%
Plymouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.40
Plymouth
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.57
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Bradford
0.92
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
61%
Bradford or Plymouth
75%
Draw or Plymouth
64%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
17%
Plymouth wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
75%
Bradford 2+ goals
41%
Bradford 3+ goals
17%
Plymouth 1+ goals
77%
Plymouth 2+ goals
43%
Plymouth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
48%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bradford scores more
36%
level
25%
Plymouth scores more
39%

Plymouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Style contrast — Bradford play Defensively solid, Plymouth Attack-heavy
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bradford
Defensively solid
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
50%Possession49%
66%Pass accuracy68%
12.4Shots13.5
1.33xGBiggest gap2.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BradfordPlymouth

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Bradford
3
Draws
1
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 67%
1–11–02–11–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bradford
LWWLL
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bradford vs Plymouth — Match Preview

Bradford face Plymouth on February 6, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bradford host Plymouth at Valley Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.