Bradford 1–0 Northampton: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Northampton

S. Humphrys 14'

4/3/2026

League One · Round 41Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Bradford51%

×Draw26%

Northampton23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.92

Bradford

1.52

Northampton

0.92

Bradford creates 65% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 99 away

1.24

creates per match

0.94

0.89

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Bradford

1.24

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Bradford

0.89

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

77%

Bradford or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

49%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

26%

Northampton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

78%

Bradford 2+ goals

45%

Bradford 3+ goals

20%

Northampton 1+ goals

60%

Northampton 2+ goals

23%

Northampton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

69%

Northampton (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 62 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.24 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Northampton attack 0.94 + Bradford defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bradford scores more

51%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

23%

Bradford at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Burge

Northampton · G

8.3

Match Events

14'

S. Humphrys↳ B. Pointon

55'

Jenson Metcalfe

61'

T. Eaves← J. Vale

61'

K. Swyer← S. Hoskins

61'

T. Fornah← D. Campbell

77'

Elliott Moore

81'

E. Wheatley← S. Humphrys

82'

L. Evans← J. Metcalfe

86'

Max Power

90'

Matthew Pennington

90+2'

J. Wright← J. Neufville

90+1'

K. McAdam← M. Jacobs

90+1'

M. Dyche← T. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordNorthampton

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots11

5Corners6

15Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target2

4Off Target5

7Blocked4

10Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

394Total Passes361

275Accurate Passes257

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2