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Bradford vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Bradford
Bradford
Preview
14:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
10/10/2026League OneLeague One · Round 10Valley Parade
Big match
54%
Bradford
model favours
54%24%21%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bradford54%
×Draw24%
Leyton Orient21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.70
Leyton Orient
0.97

Bradford creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.57
Leyton Orient
1.01

allows per match

Bradford
0.92
Leyton Orient
1.82

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less
Leyton Orient-0.11scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
79%
Bradford or Leyton Orient
76%
Draw or Leyton Orient
46%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
30%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
82%
Bradford 2+ goals
51%
Bradford 3+ goals
24%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
62%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
25%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
72%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Leyton Orient defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Leyton Orient attack 1.01 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bradford scores more
54%
level
24%
Leyton Orient scores more
21%

Bradford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Bradford sit 5, Leyton Orient 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bradford
Defensively solid
Leyton Orient
Balanced
50%Possession52%
66%Pass accuracy71%
12.4Shots11.2
1.33xGBiggest gap1.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BradfordLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Bradford
3
Draws
4
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 44%
2–11–21–10–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bradford
LWWLL
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bradford face Leyton Orient (League One)

League One returns with Bradford hosting Leyton Orient. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bradford host Leyton Orient at Valley Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.