Bradford 1–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

C. Cooke 81' (pen)

2/23/2021

League Two · Round 31The Utilita Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Bradford42%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.06

Bradford

1.29

Leyton Orient

1.06

Bradford creates 22% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 94 away

1.37

creates per match

1.17

0.96

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bradford

1.37

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Bradford

0.96

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

69%

Bradford or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

58%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

19%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

72%

Bradford 2+ goals

37%

Bradford 3+ goals

14%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

65%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

58%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 141 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.37 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bradford scores more

42%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

31%

Bradford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

N. Canavan

Bradford · D

7.5

Match Events

38'

Levi Sutton

62'

Paudie O’Connor

63'

A. Cook← D. Rowe

63'

O. Crankshaw← G. Evans

72'

Ousseynou Cisse

75'

J. Stevens← C. Vernam

75'

T. Abrahams← D. Kemp

81'

C. CookePenalty

88'

J. Dayton← O. Cissé

89'

C. Donaldson← C. Cooke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordLeyton

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots8

1Corners6

12Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots8

5On Target0

1Off Target1

3Blocked7

6Inside Box2

3Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

459Total Passes299

341Accurate Passes181

74%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1