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Bradford vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Bradford
Bradford
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
10/30/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 15The Utilita Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Bradford39%
×Draw27%
Forest Green34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.29
Forest Green
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 113 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.36
Forest Green
1.42

allows per match

Bradford
0.94
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
66%
Bradford or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
61%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
17%
Forest Green wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
72%
Bradford 2+ goals
37%
Bradford 3+ goals
14%
Forest Green 1+ goals
69%
Forest Green 2+ goals
33%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
54%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 134 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.36 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Bradford defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bradford scores more
39%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
34%

Bradford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bradford vs Forest Green

Bradford and Forest Green drew 1-1 in League Two on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at The Utilita Energy Stadium in Bradford, West Yorkshire.