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Bradford vs Doncaster — League One 2025

Bradford
Bradford
Preview
15:00
Doncaster
Doncaster
11/21/2026League OneLeague One · Round 16Valley Parade
Big match
53%
Bradford
model favours
53%26%21%

Doncaster have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bradford53%
×Draw26%
Doncaster21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.48
Doncaster
0.82

Bradford creates 80% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.23
Doncaster
0.87

allows per match

Bradford
0.77
Doncaster
1.74

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
79%
Bradford or Doncaster
74%
Draw or Doncaster
47%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
27%
Doncaster wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
77%
Bradford 2+ goals
43%
Bradford 3+ goals
19%
Doncaster 1+ goals
56%
Doncaster 2+ goals
20%
Doncaster 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
72%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.23 + Doncaster defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Doncaster attack 0.87 + Bradford defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bradford scores more
53%
level
26%
Doncaster scores more
21%

Bradford at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Bradford fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 2.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Bradford
Attack-heavy
Doncaster
Attack-heavy
54%Possession49%
68%Pass accuracy69%
15.3ShotsBiggest gap13.1
1.85xG2.02
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BradfordDoncaster

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Bradford
0
Draws
4
Doncaster
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 80%
1–01–31–31–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bradford
WWLLW
Doncaster
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bradford host Doncaster

November 21, 2026: Bradford take on Doncaster in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bradford host Doncaster at Valley Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.