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Bradford vs Doncaster — League One 2025

Bradford
Bradford
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
T. Wright 81'
1/31/2026League OneLeague One · Round 30Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bradford53%
×Draw26%
Doncaster21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.48
Doncaster
0.82

Bradford creates 80% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.23
Doncaster
0.87

allows per match

Bradford
0.77
Doncaster
1.74

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
79%
Bradford or Doncaster
74%
Draw or Doncaster
47%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
27%
Doncaster wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
77%
Bradford 2+ goals
43%
Bradford 3+ goals
19%
Doncaster 1+ goals
56%
Doncaster 2+ goals
20%
Doncaster 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
72%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.23 + Doncaster defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Doncaster attack 0.87 + Bradford defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bradford scores more
53%
level
26%
Doncaster scores more
21%

Bradford at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
M. PenningtonBradfordBradford · D
7.9

Match Events

53'
Aden Baldwin
58'
P. Mullin← S. Humphrys
59'
G. Lapslie← K. Jackson
61'
J. Gibson← H. Adelakun
71'
Paul Mullin
72'
T. Wright← C. Tilt
80'
Brandon Hanlan
80'
B. Hanlan← B. Sharp
81'
T. Wright↳ J. Neufville
85'
J. Wright← B. Pointon
85'
M. Pearson← J. Maxwell
85'
G. Middleton← H. Clifton
86'
D. Robinson← G. Broadbent

Possession

52%Bradford

Shots

9Bradford

Pass accuracy

50%Bradford

Statistics

BradfordDoncaster
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots10
1.14Expected Goals (xG)1.29
8Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots10
4On Target4
5Off Target4
0Blocked2
6Inside Box6
3Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
328Total Passes322
207Accurate Passes199
63%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Bradford vs Doncaster

Bradford beat Doncaster 1-0 in League One on January 31, 2026.

Goals: T. Wright (81').

Bradford controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Valley Parade in Bradford.