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Bradford vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Bradford
Bradford
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
4/6/2019League OneLeague One · Round 41Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bradford44%
×Draw27%
Doncaster29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.39
Doncaster
1.08

Bradford creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 108 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.16
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Bradford
1.04
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
71%
Bradford or Doncaster
73%
Draw or Doncaster
56%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
21%
Doncaster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
75%
Bradford 2+ goals
40%
Bradford 3+ goals
16%
Doncaster 1+ goals
66%
Doncaster 2+ goals
29%
Doncaster 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
60%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.16 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Bradford defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bradford scores more
44%
level
27%
Doncaster scores more
29%

Bradford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bradford 0–1 Doncaster

Doncaster beat Bradford 1-0 in League One on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Valley Parade in Bradford.