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Bradford vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Bradford
Bradford
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
3/22/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 38University of Bradford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Bradford45%
×Draw28%
Colchester27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.35
Colchester
0.97

Bradford creates 39% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 180 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.36
Colchester
1.00

allows per match

Bradford
0.94
Colchester
1.34

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
73%
Bradford or Colchester
72%
Draw or Colchester
55%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
21%
Colchester wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
74%
Bradford 2+ goals
39%
Bradford 3+ goals
15%
Colchester 1+ goals
62%
Colchester 2+ goals
25%
Colchester 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
63%
Colchester (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 134 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.36 + Colchester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Colchester attack 1.00 + Bradford defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bradford scores more
45%
level
28%
Colchester scores more
27%

Bradford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bradford vs Colchester

Bradford beat Colchester 4-1 in League Two on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at University of Bradford Stadium in Bradford, West Yorkshire.