Bradford 2–2 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

A. Cook 49'

C. Vernam 42'

B. Pitman 90'

A. Kilgour 48'

10/16/2021

League Two · Round 12The Utilita Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bradford44%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.09

Bradford

1.40

Bristol Rovers

1.09

Bradford creates 28% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 59 away

1.37

creates per match

1.22

0.96

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Bradford

1.37

Bristol Rovers

1.22

allows per match

Bradford

0.96

Bristol Rovers

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

71%

Bradford or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

56%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

21%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

75%

Bradford 2+ goals

41%

Bradford 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

30%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

60%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 141 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.37 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bradford scores more

44%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

29%

Bradford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Vernam

Bradford · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

Harvey Saunders

22'

B. Pitman← H. Saunders

25'

Paul Coutts

30'

M. Foulds← L. Ridehalgh

42'

46'

48'

49'

54'

59'

S. Nicholson← P. Coutts

63'

Brett Pitman

81'

K. Scales← E. Watt

90'

B. Pitman↳ A. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordBristol

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots9

6Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots9

4On Target4

8Off Target1

6Blocked4

14Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

340Total Passes397

240Accurate Passes285

71%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1