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Bradford vs Barnsley — League #46 2026

Bradford
Bradford
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
C. Oduor 66'
L. Richards 63'
T. Smith 35'
A. Cook 17'
M. Platt 2'
B. Cotter 77'
11/21/2023League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 10University of Bradford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bradford54%
×Draw20%
Barnsley25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
2.25
Barnsley
1.50

Bradford creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bradford
2.00
Barnsley
2.00

allows per match

Bradford
1.00
Barnsley
2.50

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
75%
Bradford or Barnsley
80%
Draw or Barnsley
46%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
33%
Barnsley wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
89%
Bradford 2+ goals
65%
Bradford 3+ goals
39%
Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
44%
Barnsley 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
68%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Barnsley away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 2.00 + Barnsley defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Barnsley attack 2.00 + Bradford defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bradford scores more
54%
level
20%
Barnsley scores more
25%

Bradford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
C. OduorBradfordBradford · F
8.7

Match Events

2'
M. Platt↳ H. Chapman
13'
Vimal Yoganathan
17'
A. Cook↳ C. Oduor
35'
T. Smith
37'
Brad Halliday
42'
Harrison Chapman
45'
Colin Doyle
55'
Richard Smallwood
60'
Owen Dodgson
62'
B. Cotter← S. Cosgrove
62'
J. Ackroyd← L. Connell
63'
L. Richards
66'
C. Oduor↳ B. Halliday
67'
B. Pointon← L. Richards
67'
A. Gilliead← R. Smallwood
67'
J. Walker← H. Chapman
73'
V. Oliver← A. Cook
73'
J. Makiessi← V. Yoganathan
77'
B. Cotter↳ A. Atkinson
79'
E. Nzondo← A. Marsh
82'
A. Wilson← C. Oduor
90+4'
Jack Shepherd

Possession

44%Bradford

Shots

12Bradford

Pass accuracy

48%Bradford

Statistics

BradfordBarnsley
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots13
2Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots13
9On Target6
2Off Target3
1Blocked4
9Inside Box7
3Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
342Total Passes435
198Accurate Passes279
58%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides4

League #46: Bradford 5–1 Barnsley

Bradford beat Barnsley 5-1 in League #46 on November 21, 2023.

Goals: M. Platt (2'), A. Cook (17'), T. Smith (35'), L. Richards (63'), C. Oduor (66'), B. Cotter (77').

Barnsley controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at University of Bradford Stadium in Bradford, West Yorkshire.