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Brabrand vs Thisted FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
2/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brabrand59%
×Draw21%
Thisted FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
2.14
Thisted FC
1.18

Brabrand creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.71
Thisted FC
1.07

allows per match

Brabrand
1.29
Thisted FC
2.57

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
80%
Brabrand or Thisted FC
79%
Draw or Thisted FC
41%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
36%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
88%
Brabrand 2+ goals
63%
Brabrand 3+ goals
36%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
69%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
33%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
74%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.71 + Thisted FC defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.14

Thisted FC attack 1.07 + Brabrand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Brabrand scores more
59%
level
21%
Thisted FC scores more
20%

Brabrand at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Brabrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brabrand vs Thisted FC

Thisted FC beat Brabrand 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 28, 2026.