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Brabrand vs Odder — 3. Division 2021

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Odder
Odder
M. Laursen 76'
D. Lundholm 20'
11/9/20243. Division3. Division · Round 15Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brabrand50%
×Draw24%
Odder26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
1.72
Odder
1.19

Brabrand creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.63
Odder
1.44

allows per match

Brabrand
0.94
Odder
1.81

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Odder+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Odder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
74%
Brabrand or Odder
76%
Draw or Odder
50%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
27%
Odder wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
82%
Brabrand 2+ goals
51%
Brabrand 3+ goals
25%
Odder 1+ goals
70%
Odder 2+ goals
33%
Odder 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
65%
Odder (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Odder away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.63 + Odder defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Odder attack 1.44 + Brabrand defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brabrand scores more
50%
level
24%
Odder scores more
26%

Brabrand at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brabrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
D. Lundholm
76'
M. Laursen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brabrand vs Odder

Brabrand beat Odder 2-0 in 3. Division on November 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Lundholm (20'), M. Laursen (76').

The match was played at Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg in Brabrand.