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Brabrand vs Kolding IF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
J. Ohajunwa 80' (pen)
S. Sommer 59'
T. Mikkelsen 57'
9/24/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Brabrand27%
×Draw26%
Kolding IF47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
1.06
Kolding IF
1.50

Kolding IF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 33 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.27
Kolding IF
1.73

allows per match

Brabrand
1.27
Kolding IF
0.85

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
53%
Brabrand or Kolding IF
74%
Draw or Kolding IF
73%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
10%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
65%
Brabrand 2+ goals
29%
Brabrand 3+ goals
9%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
78%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
44%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
36%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.27 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Brabrand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brabrand scores more
27%
level
26%
Kolding IF scores more
47%

Kolding IF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
T. Mikkelsen
59'
S. Sommer
80'
J. OhajunwaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Brabrand 0–3 Kolding IF

Kolding IF beat Brabrand 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 24, 2022.

Goals: T. Mikkelsen (57'), S. Sommer (59'), J. Ohajunwa (80' pen).

The match was played at Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg in Brabrand.