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Brabrand vs Holstebro — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
1 – 1
Holstebro
Holstebro
8/23/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brabrand68%
×Draw18%
Holstebro15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
2.42
Holstebro
1.03

Brabrand creates 135% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.70
Holstebro
0.86

allows per match

Brabrand
1.20
Holstebro
3.14

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
85%
Brabrand or Holstebro
82%
Draw or Holstebro
32%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
45%
Holstebro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
91%
Brabrand 2+ goals
69%
Brabrand 3+ goals
43%
Holstebro 1+ goals
64%
Holstebro 2+ goals
28%
Holstebro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
82%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Holstebro away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.70 + Holstebro defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.42

Holstebro attack 0.86 + Brabrand defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brabrand scores more
68%
level
18%
Holstebro scores more
15%

Brabrand at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brabrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Brabrand 1–1 Holstebro

Brabrand and Holstebro drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg in Brabrand.