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Brabrand vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
9/14/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Brabrand41%
×Draw26%
Fremad Amager32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
1.40
Fremad Amager
1.21

Brabrand creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 48 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.31
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Brabrand
1.26
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
68%
Brabrand or Fremad Amager
74%
Draw or Fremad Amager
59%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
19%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
75%
Brabrand 2+ goals
41%
Brabrand 3+ goals
17%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
70%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
34%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
56%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.31 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Brabrand defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brabrand scores more
41%
level
26%
Fremad Amager scores more
32%

Brabrand at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brabrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brabrand vs Fremad Amager

Brabrand and Fremad Amager drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg in Brabrand.