Brabrand 0–3 AB Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Brabrand

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

AB Copenhagen

N. Albert 44'

M. Gudmann 26'

E. Mygind 13'

11/5/2022

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Brabrand35%

×Draw26%

AB Copenhagen39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrabrandExpected goals in this matchAB Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

Brabrand

1.33

AB Copenhagen

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 74 away

1.27

creates per match

1.54

1.28

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Brabrand

1.27

AB Copenhagen

1.54

allows per match

Brabrand

1.28

AB Copenhagen

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

AB Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw

61%

Brabrand or AB Copenhagen

74%

Draw or AB Copenhagen

65%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+

16%

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals

74%

Brabrand 2+ goals

38%

Brabrand 3+ goals

15%

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

76%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

41%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)

48%

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.27 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + Brabrand defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brabrand scores more

35%

level

26%

AB Copenhagen scores more

39%

AB Copenhagen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

E. Mygind

26'

M. Gudmann

44'

N. Albert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff