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Brabrand vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Brabrand
Brabrand
FT
2 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
K. Nygaard Andersen 72'
M. Kaljo 32'
S. Andreasen 11'
8/21/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Brabrand32%
×Draw26%
Aarhus Fremad43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brabrand
1.21
Aarhus Fremad
1.45

Aarhus Fremad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

creates per match

Brabrand
1.27
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Brabrand
1.27
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Brabrand+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brabrand ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brabrand or draw
57%
Brabrand or Aarhus Fremad
74%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
68%

Winning margin

Brabrand wins by 2+
13%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brabrand 1+ goals
70%
Brabrand 2+ goals
34%
Brabrand 3+ goals
12%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
77%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
42%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brabrand (draw refunded)
43%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brabrand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brabrand attack 1.27 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Brabrand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brabrand scores more
32%
level
26%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
43%

Aarhus Fremad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
S. Andreasen
32'
M. Kaljo
72'
K. Nygaard Andersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Brabrand 2–1 Aarhus Fremad

Brabrand beat Aarhus Fremad 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 21, 2021.

Goals: S. Andreasen (11'), M. Kaljo (32'), K. Nygaard Andersen (72').

The match was played at Brabrand IF's Idrætsanlæg in Brabrand.