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Aarhus Fremad vs Brabrand — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brabrand
Brabrand
4/1/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 20Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Aarhus Fremad53%
×Draw24%
Brabrand24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.73
Brabrand
1.08

Aarhus Fremad creates 60% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.99
Brabrand
1.06

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.10
Brabrand
1.48

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Brabrand+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Brabrand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
76%
Aarhus Fremad or Brabrand
76%
Draw or Brabrand
47%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
29%
Brabrand wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
82%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
52%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
25%
Brabrand 1+ goals
66%
Brabrand 2+ goals
29%
Brabrand 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
69%
Brabrand (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.10 · 81 matches

Brabrand away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.99 + Brabrand defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.73

Brabrand attack 1.06 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
53%
level
24%
Brabrand scores more
24%

Aarhus Fremad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Brabrand

Aarhus Fremad and Brabrand drew 0-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.