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Brønshøj vs Skovshoved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Brønshøj
Brønshøj
FT
0 – 2
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
8/19/20172nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 3Tingbjerg Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brønshøj49%
×Draw24%
Skovshoved27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brønshøj
1.71
Skovshoved
1.19

Brønshøj creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brønshøj
1.41
Skovshoved
1.31

allows per match

Brønshøj
1.06
Skovshoved
2.00

finishing

Brønshøj+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brønshøj ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brønshøj or draw
73%
Brønshøj or Skovshoved
76%
Draw or Skovshoved
51%

Winning margin

Brønshøj wins by 2+
27%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brønshøj 1+ goals
82%
Brønshøj 2+ goals
51%
Brønshøj 3+ goals
24%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
70%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
33%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brønshøj (draw refunded)
65%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brønshøj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brønshøj attack 1.41 + Skovshoved defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Skovshoved attack 1.31 + Brønshøj defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brønshøj scores more
49%
level
24%
Skovshoved scores more
27%

Brønshøj at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brønshøj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Brønshøj 0–2 Skovshoved

Skovshoved beat Brønshøj 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 19, 2017.

The match was played at Tingbjerg Idrætspark in Brønshøj.