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Brønshøj vs Hillerød — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brønshøj
Brønshøj
FT
0 – 3
Hillerød
Hillerød
2/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brønshøj35%
×Draw23%
Hillerød42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brønshøj
1.57
Hillerød
1.73

Hillerød creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Brønshøj
1.45
Hillerød
1.56

allows per match

Brønshøj
1.90
Hillerød
1.69

finishing

Brønshøj+0.00on par
Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brønshøj ↓

Hillerød →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Brønshøj or draw
58%
Brønshøj or Hillerød
77%
Draw or Hillerød
65%

Winning margin

Brønshøj wins by 2+
17%
Hillerød wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Brønshøj 1+ goals
79%
Brønshøj 2+ goals
46%
Brønshøj 3+ goals
21%
Hillerød 1+ goals
82%
Hillerød 2+ goals
52%
Hillerød 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Brønshøj (draw refunded)
46%
Hillerød (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brønshøj at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brønshøj attack 1.45 + Hillerød defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hillerød attack 1.56 + Brønshøj defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brønshøj scores more
35%
level
23%
Hillerød scores more
42%

Hillerød at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Brønshøj 0–3 Hillerød

Hillerød beat Brønshøj 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.