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Brøndby W vs AaB W — Kvindeliga 2019

Brøndby W
Brøndby W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
AaB W
AaB W
8/27/2023KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 1Brøndby IF's anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Brøndby W74%
×Draw16%
AaB W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brøndby W
2.40
AaB W
0.73

Brøndby W creates 229% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 23 away

creates per match

Brøndby W
2.02
AaB W
0.52

allows per match

Brøndby W
0.94
AaB W
2.78

finishing

Brøndby W+0.00on par
AaB W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brøndby W ↓

AaB W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Brøndby W or draw
90%
Brøndby W or AaB W
84%
Draw or AaB W
26%

Winning margin

Brøndby W wins by 2+
51%
AaB W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Brøndby W 1+ goals
91%
Brøndby W 2+ goals
69%
Brøndby W 3+ goals
42%
AaB W 1+ goals
52%
AaB W 2+ goals
17%
AaB W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brøndby W (draw refunded)
89%
AaB W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brøndby W at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 81 matches

AaB W away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brøndby W attack 2.02 + AaB W defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.40

AaB W attack 0.52 + Brøndby W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Brøndby W scores more
74%
level
16%
AaB W scores more
10%

Brøndby W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Brøndby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brøndby W vs AaB W

Brøndby W beat AaB W 4-2 in Kvindeliga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Brøndby IF's anlæg in Brøndby.